Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
How Does the Iran War Really End?
The US-Israel-Iran war is 71 days old today, and the end has been in sight for quite a while. That said, neither side seems interested in negotiating a settlement because both sides think they are winning. The US is confident that Iran has no military left and is going broke. Iran is convinced it took the best punch the US could throw, and they came through it. It will take more time for both sides to realize that unconditional surrender is not in the cards and that a compromise is needed. In the end, that compromise will result in a Korean end to the fighting while the hostilities felt on both sides remain.
The issues that truly need resolution are opening the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian frozen assets in the West and the Iranian nuclear program. The first is relatively easy, the second is possible and the third will have to be fudged if there is to be a deal that looks like peace. Regardless, Iran will come out of this in a better position than it went in, while the US finds itself in the opposite position.
Opening the Strait is easy. Both sides just let ships transit the Strait. However, Iran has discovered that it can close the waterway and hold the world hostage with a few sea mines, speed boats and shoulder-launched missiles. This is far more powerful than a nuclear weapon because its use does not guarantee a radioactive counterstrike.
Iran has created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to administer the tolls it is charging ships to get through the narrow passage. This cannot be permitted if freedom of navigation is to remain a global princple. At the same time, Iran will want money to rebuild what the war has destroyed. Creation of a UN-related body to administer a tax on all shipping in the Persian Gulf offers an alternative that Iran and the shipping insurers can accept. Spend the money on all the littoral nations with most of the money rebuilding Iran since Iran took the most damage.
The frozen assets in the West represent a massive amount of money that the mullahs could use to improve life for the Iranian people. Instead, they will probably embezzle some of it and spend some on its proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. That cannot be allowed, but the carrot of getting all that money does provide some leverage for the US. Phased release of the funds in exchange for positive actions by Iran is the kind of financial deal even the real estate guys in the Trump administration can understand.
Finally, there is the nuclear program in Iran. The US wants to make sure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. Iran has huge incentive to get one, namely being attacked twice in one year by the US and Israel. Iran has uranium mines and engineers who can turn it into yellowcake, then uranium flouride and eventually highly enriched uranium. The only way to prevent Iran from eventually getting a nuke is to make not having a nuke more attractive. Those frozen assets can be effective here.
That said, Iran will never give up enrichment. The mullahs may accept a limit to how enriched their uranium can be (3-5% is fine for nuclear power, 20% for nuclear medicine), but they are not going to ship the 60% HEU they have anywhere. The best the world can hope to achieve is a downblending from 60% to 3-5%.
One must also remember that Israel is a party to this war even if it will not be a party to the peace. In fact, one expects Israel to annex informally the 10 kilometer strip it has seized from Lebanon and to continue bombing Beirut. The Netanyahu government views a failed state as their ideal solution to the Iranian problem. While that would result in terrorism spreading all over the region, that is their goal. Should the US and Iran get too close to actual peace, Mr. Netanyahu may well upset the board and force hostilities on both of the others.
A Korean-style, armed armistice with an open Strait of Hormuz might be the best that one can hope to see. And that will not be as good as the status quo ante bellum.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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