Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
UK Local Politics Finish Off Duopoly
The counting of ballots cast on Thursday in the UK local elections is just about done. Thousands of local council seats were at stake in England as were the entirety of the Welsh Assembly (the Sennedd) and of the Scottish Parliament. The rise of Reform is the story in England along with the Green Party winning its first mayoralty. In Wales, Plaid Cymru has replaced Labour after decades of the latter governing. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party has won its fifth consecutive election. Across the UK, the story is simple. The Tory-Labour duopoly that has been in place for over a hundred years is gone. Multiparty politics has come to Britain.
Not all the council seats in England were contested, but it is clear that Reform has entered UK politics for real. They won 1,413 council seats and have taken majority control of several councils. Compare their result to Labour's 1,319 lost and the Tory loss of 549 seats. Sir John Curtice, who has forgotten more about elections in the UK than the rest of the country ever knew, has calculated what today's votes say about the entire country. He essentially has modeled the demographics of the entire country based on who really voted. The result is that Reform has 26% support, Green 18%, Tories and Labour 17% and the LibDems on 16%. A five-party system seems cemented into place with the legacy parties on the downswing.
This will have a significant impact on by-elections and general elections for Westminster. Local councillors are the activist grass roots, and they have a little team of their own. These become the footsoldiers for the general election. Reform had 2 councillors before yesterday. Now they have 1,413. That is 1,411 more campaign teams than before. And Labour has 1,319 fewer. This will result in a different composition of the House of Commons.
In Wales, the Plaid Cymru victory is a first in the cradle of the Labour movement. Historically, there is NO Labour without with Welsh miners. Plaid Cymru got 43 seats, six short of a majority. Reform finished second with 34. Labor had 9, and the First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat, resigning as leader as a result. The Tories managed 7, the Greens 2 and the LibDems 1. It is almost certain that the London Labour government cost the Welsh Labour party loads of seats, but they did not run to the traditional parties.
As for Scotland, the SNP took at least 57 seats, down half a dozen. After the financial scandals the party has had, one might expect the party to have been thrashed. While their share of the vote is down and they wind up with fewer seats than in the last Scottish election, the Unionist Parties have not made their cases. Sir Keir Starmer's unpopularity ensured the SNP would still be the largest party, and it is. Labour was second with 17, Reform on 15, Scottish Greens 13, the Conservatives 11 and the LibDems 9. While a second independence referendum is probably not happening this time around, Scotland is likely to be governed by the two pro-independence parties, the SNP and the Greens. This was the governing team last time, and there is no reason for change based on the arithmetic.
The Labour Party must now move on. The removal of Sir Keir because of this result is not going to happen, although a few have said he needs to go or set a timetable for departure. The next general election is not required for another three years. But when it does happen, there is a very good chance that it will result in a coalition government. Five parties, even in the first-past-the-post system, almost guarantees no one will have a majority. The duopoly is gone.
The King's Speech is next week. It is the ideal time to turn the page on these results for the PM. One wonders if he is up to it.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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