Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Israel, Iran Exchange Missile Shots
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran (and the US) fell apart for a bit last night and early this morning. Iran launched a few missiles at Israel, and the Israelis returned fire. Iran claims to have hit an Israeli Air Force base, and the Israelis say they hit a chemical plant in Iran. Both sides have said that they will hold their fire for now, but if there is anything more coming from the other side, they will retaliate. The whole kerfuffle stems from a basic problem in defining what war is having a ceasefire: the one in the Persian Gulf or the one in the Persian Gulf and in Lebanon. Israel says it is the former, while Iran says it is the latter. What happens in Lebanon holds the key.
The Israeli and American governments are allies in the conflict with Iran, but they do not have identical war aims. The Israelis want a collapsed state in Iran, failed state. They also want the southern third of Lebanon either as a demiltarized zone or a new place to settle. The Americans want the Iranians to open the Strait of Hormuz and to surrender their nuclear ambitions and ballistic missile capabilities.
The Iranian regime has a very simple aim. It wants to survive the war, and in the process, it wants to make sure its proxies (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi in Yemen) have the capacity to act after the fighting ends. If that means holding the world economy hostage, well, "thems the breaks."
So, the Israelis have pursued their objective of destroying the fighting capacities of Hezbollah and clearing out the entire population of southern Lebanon, despite the ceasefire that has been in place since April. In other words, they continued fighting in Lebanon because they do not consider it the same war so the ceasefire does not apply in Lebanon.
After a few weeks of this, Iran lost its patience and launched their attack yesterday. President Trump got on the phone with Prime Minister Netanyahu and tried to convince the Israeli leader to refrain from shooting back. That goes against every precept of security Israel has. Thery believe in hitting back hard; the war in Gaza is an example of the disproportionate way they conduct their security operations. After a few Israeli missiles were launched, Tel Aviv was willing to halt matters for now. Iran is willing to hold fire as well, but the region is nervous.
Moving the peace process (for want of a better term) forward is quite difficult under these circumstances. Israel is not going to stop its operations in Lebanon until the last non-Israeli leaves the area south of the Litani River. The Americans will try to get them to stop, and eventually, they will be able to apply enough pressure to do so.But that is not going to happen today, tomorrow, next week or even next month.
Israel will continue to fight, and that is going continue to enrage Iran. Iran does not want to continue the war any more than Mr. Trump does. Both want a way out, but it seems each is blocking the egress of the other. So, when Israel continues fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran will be tempted to attack in response, which may cause the US to intervene.
None of this is helpful to peace negotiations. Indeed, Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said, "Our goal is to end the war and create lasting security, not to normalise relations with the United States, and we do not trust the other side." The US and Israelis are not enthralled with the mullahs either.
Continued low-level combat, a lack of trust on all sides and no shipping in or out of the Gulf will likely translate into a continuation of the conflict. That is not good for the global economy, and the clock is ticking.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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