Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
US-Iran Peace up to Netanyahu
Chess players are familiar with the concept of a "fork," a position on the board whereby a piece can attack two or more pieces of the opponent on the next move. The opponent must decide which loss he would prefer to suffer, losing a rook instead of a queen for instance. The recent announcement from Pakistan that the US and Iran have agreed on a memorandum of understanding regarding peace talks has forked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The PM must either continue his war in Lebanon and wait for Iran to blow up the peaec talks or he must stop his war against Hezboallah right before an election, risking defeat for being soft on the enemy. The peace memo with succeed or fail based on what he does. Right now, he is more likely to blow things up than acquiesce, but that could change instantly.
The US and Iran have negotiated a single page memorandum of understanding, a document that amounts to an agenda for real peace talks. Allegedly, the parties signed it electronically on Sunday, but there will be an in-person, formal (initial?) signing in Geneva Friday. The actual text of the document is unclear, with neither side publishing it as yet. Some journalists claim to have copies, and perhaps, they do. The provisions of the memo are not as important here as Mr. Netanyahu's response.
Analyst Wajeeh Lion, a Saudi expert and exile based in Minneapolis, noted this morning:
Within the governing coalition, security ministers framed the diplomatic pressure from Washington as a direct infringement on Israeli sovereignty. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir issued a comprehensive public rebuke of the US strategy, explicitly stating that Israel is "not a banana republic" and will not subordinate its security architecture to international dictates. While acknowledging President Trump, Ben-Gvir stipulated absolute conditions for the northern front: the complete dismantling of Hezbollah and a refusal to withdraw from territories cleared of terror infrastructure by the IDF. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reinforced this position, classifying the agreement as definitively "bad for Israel and for the entire free world."
Simultaneously, the Israeli opposition mobilized the impending agreement as a severe indictment of Netanyahu’s foreign policy and his management of the US-Israel alliance. Opposition Leader Yair Lapid characterized the MOU, along with the linked reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as "one of the most shocking failures" in the nation's security history.
Israel still prizes the relationship with the US, and preventing Mr. Trump from extracating himself from the mess he created would put that relationship at risk. On the other hand, Mr. Netanyahu would like to be PM after the election, and thus stay in power as well as out of jail. This is the fork. Does he placate the Americans or the Israeli voters?
Some see him having until Friday to act, but this journal takes a different view. Israeli troops have taken a 10-kilometer strip of southern Lebanon, and they have forced all the local inhabitants to flee. Mr. Netanyahu is likely to just leave those men and women there. He can continue his war against Hezbollah and just wait for Hezbollah's sponsor, Iran, to respond.
Iran can respond to this in a few ways. It can do nothing (an option few ever consider) and sacrifice Hezbollah on the alter of peace. Or it can launch ballistic missiles at Israel, which would probably result in an Israeli attack on Iran. That would be the way back to actual fighting. There is also an in-between approach. That would be Iran accepting Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon for a few days or weeks followed by walking out of the peace talks for which the memo calls. That would force the Americans into either reining in Israel or reigniting the US-Iranian part of the conflict.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and Mr. Netanyahu has yet to agree.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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