Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Makerfield By-Election Sees Left United, Right Divided
Tomorrow, the voters in the constituency of Makerfield (which is near Manchester and includes parts of Wigan) will go to the polls to elect a new MP. The reason for the by-election was the sudden resignation of their sitting MP as part of the slow moving leadership challenge (which has not officially started yet). Andy Burnham, who is currently Mayor of Greater Manchester, wants to be an MP so he can challenge Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for the keys to Number 10 Downing Street. Based on current polling, Mr. Burnham will win the by-election because the right is divided while the left is united behind him.
The whole sorry story started with the collapse of the Labour vote in the local elections in May, which included the elections for the Scottish Parliament (the SNP won again) and the Welsh Sennad (where Labour lost to Plaid Cymru). When the poor showing in English council elections came in as well, many Labourites lost their nerve and wanted a new leader. So, Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned with the intention of starting a leadership fight. He has yet to trigger one, in part because he is a bit of a stalking horse for Mr. Burnham.
If Mr. Burnham loses the by-election, Mr. Streeting may still challenge Sir Keir, but one expects he will lose that fight. The party want Mr. Burnham, and without him, any challenge will be an uphill fight. If Mr. Burnham wins, Mr. Streeting maystill stand, but one expects he will not make much headway. Mr. Burnham will do well against Sir Keir, but the outcome is unclear. Either way, the PM or the new PM will have a weaker position with a divided party. This is an incredibly stupid situation for a party with a 174-seat majority and three more years before an election is legally required.
So, will Mr. Burnham do it? Opinium just put out a poll that shows Mr. Burnham with support from 46% of the voters. The Reform Party has 41%, while Restore UK (a right-wing party that views Reform as part of the establishment) has 7%. The Tories have 3%, the Greens 2%, the Lib-Dems have 1% with others combined on 2% .
What is interesting here is that the local Tory voters have fallen in line with Reform and the Lib-Dems and Greens have taken to Labour. In the 2024 general election the Conservatives got almost 11% of the vote, suggesting 8 of those 11 have gone to Reform now. The Lib-Dems and Greens have seen a similar change in their vote: 6.8% for the former in the general election and 4.4% for the latter.
What will probably prove to be the difference is the Restore UK vote. In a first-past-the-post system like Britain's, getting the most votes is the key to winning whether it is a majority or not. If the Opinium poll were to hold for the vote tomorrow, Labour would win with a margin of 4%. Restore UK has more than that, suggesting that they are spoilers here.
And perhaps that is in their political interests. If Labour win the by-election, Reform takes a hit. Any hit to Reform is a good thing according to Restore UK. They will be able to campaign on the theme that Reform cannot beat Labour. The idea that Restore UK can is laughable, but that will be their narrative.
Meanwhile, the Lib-Dems and Greens both take the view that Reform is a threat to the nation and the electoral system. They rightly worry that a Reform government would do to the UK what MAGA has done to America. So, their voters are willing to vote Labour as a tactical move.
If Andy Burnham becomes PM, he will not have an electoral mandate. And if he dissolves Parliament, Reform will win. And if Sir Keir prevails, he will be much weaker than he was two months ago.
This journal believes Labour woould have been better off had the party simply taken the local election defeat in stride knowing that the government has 3 years to fix things.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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