Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Trump Calls Time on MOU with Iran
Donald Trump claims to be a great negotiator, but the evidence says otherwise. In his latest bumble, he announced to the world press that he thinks the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran has run its course. He said, "I think it's over." He opined about the Iranian leadership, "I don't want to deal with them anymore, they're scum." If that were not enough, "As far as I'm concerned, it's over," he added. "It's just a waste of time dealing with them, they're liars,” he state for good measure. The reason is simple. Both side have started shooting at each other. The only question is how far up the escalation ladder is this going to go?
The shooting has never really stopped if one includes the Israeli attack on Lebanon and Hezbollah. That said, the Iranians appear to have fired on more than one cargo ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The US retaliated by attacking alleged military in southern Iran. So, Iran launched drones and ballistic missiles (which it turns out, the US did not destroy after all) at Bahrain, Kuwait and other places that host US forces.
Control over the Strait of Hormuz is now an Iranian basic demand. They will not give it up without a fight. "The only safe corridor for the passage of commercial vessels and oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz is the route designated by the Islamic Republic of Iran," the government in Tehran has said. Unless the US Navy can force the waterway open, Iran is going to get its way.
Iran, of course, has internal political pressures that circumscribe its range of action. The hardliners and the harder-liners (there are no “moderates” willing to accommodate the West) are arguing over whether the ceasefire serves the interest of the regime. Influencing that discussion has been the funeral of the late Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, which Iran finally held over the week-end. One suspects that this led to some less-than-rational decision making over the cargo ships. That is how the world got here.
Mr. Trump is not a patient man. Even his staunchest supporters will acknowledge this (although they view it as a strength not a weakness). Iran has two speeds when it negotiates: slow and slower. As a result, he has grown frustrated with the discussions. In New York real estate, negotiations are about what one gets for what price. If the numbers do not work, there is no deal, and one moves on. In international politics, there is no moving on. The Korean Peninsula demonstrates that. There is an armistice but no peace treaty there, and that has been the situation since 1953.
That is not to say that Iran does not face pressures, especially economic pressure. Yet in his desire to get a deal, Mr. Trump gave Iran access to a great deal of money. He lifted the sanctions on Iranian oil sales with the signing of the MOU, and he revoked it today, meaning he is giving Iran a reason to halt talks. At the same time, Iran has pocketed several billion dollars of badly needed income. The White House undercut its own position.
The price of oil has gone back up with Brent Crude headed back toward $80 a barrel, and it is likely that it will continue to rise because the Strait of Hormuz is de facto closed. Oliver Smith of the BBC wrote:
The head of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) -- the UN agency which oversees international shipping -- has condemned the attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz over the last two days and urged shipping operators not to send vessels through the waterway.
"These reckless attacks have again placed innocent seafarers in grave danger," says IMO secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez.
"As long as the safety and security of crews cannot be assured, I urge flag states, shipowners, ship operators and all relevant authorities to avoid exposing seafarers to unnecessary danger by transiting the Strait," he adds.
Neither side really wants to escalate from here, but off-ramps have been few and far between since the fighting started. This journal expects things to stablize but at a level that benefits no one.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
|
|
|
