Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
US, Iran at War Again
The US and Iran are back at war. The Memorandum of Understanding appears to have been misunderstood by both sides. The US believed that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened and negotiations on Iranian nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles would begin. Iran believed that the Israeli war in Lebanon would end. For the last 4 nights, the two sides have fired on each other. President Trump has said the MOU is dead. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seems to agree. The war is back on, and the question now is how far up the escalation ladder will the parties go?
The White House seems to be under the impression that Iran is on its last legs and that the mullahs have no choice but to surrender. Listening to the comments from the administration, Iran has nothing left with which to defend itself. Everything has been obliterated. If that were true, the Strait would be open. The US Navy cannot open it. Iran is an unsinkable aircraft carrier, and its drones are too numerous to defeat. Iran only has to get one hit on a tanker, while the US must stop them all -- the definition of assymmetry.
Iran does have economic problems that the war has exacerbated. The economy is projected to shrink by about 6% this year, and inflation is running somewhere between 60% and 90%. As the economist Herb Stein observed, “if something cannot go on forever, it won't.” Iran does need some economic help, but there is no real deadline here. In a theocracy where the people do not matter because God does, the government can ignore the suffering of the masses for quite a while.
Iran has won this war by fighting economically rather than militarily. While it is true the missiles and drones have done damage to Arab Gulf States, US bases in the region and Israel, the Iranian Air Force and Navy are hors d'combat. The army is not involved as the Trump administration has an allergy to ground troops in Iran (and that is wise). But the oil is not flowing, and in time, the US war machine will have to address the global fuel needs.
Estimates are that the world uses somewhere around 105 million barrels a day, and global strategic reserves are at about 2.5 billion barrels. The war has drived down reserves significantly, and it is likely that the policymakers are not paying attention to that change. There is much less room for error than there was in February when this ghastly war began. Now that the Strait is definitely closed, the reserves are probably going to be used, bringing the world fuel markets closer to unpleasantness.
Mr. Trump has threatened to bomb Iranian fuel sites, bridges and other strategically important targets next week if Iran does not yield. He has reimposed the blockade on Iranian ports as a signal of his intent. Iran took quite a beating in the war with Iraq back when Saddam Hussein governed that country. They lost about 750,000 people in defending their land. They gave up no territory.
In this war, they withstood the best punch America could throw, short of nuclear weapons, and they are still in the game.
The strategic reserves that governments have released have served to cushion the oil shock that drove prices to $125 per barrel rather than $200. And there is still oil in the reserves that can be tapped to keep the lights on and the engines humming. But eventually, the oil that was taken from the reserves will have to be replaced, or the world will face disaster the next time there is an oil shock (and there will be one). In other words, the demand in the future is going to be higher than it would otherwise be. That means higher prices in future than they were before this war began.
The Trump administration has less room to maneuver than before the ceasefire, and Iran understands that it wins if it does not quit. The maximalist demands of both sides must disappear before this conflict is settled. That will take time that the US does not have.
As an aside, renewable sources of energy do not have to pass through any shipping chokepoint. The ultimate solution is clear, and contrary to the policy of the Trumpists. Getting away from fossil fuels is a matter of national security.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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