Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Iran, Oman Making Hormuz Deal
The media are reporting that Iran and Oman are close to making a deal on opening the Strait of Hormuz. This wouild not be a return to the status quo ante bellum, in which ships sailed freely through the narrow maritime channel between the two countries. It would be a system of fees for environmental clean up, security and other such issues. What both sides are careful not to call it is a toll. The difference is negligible in practical terms; ships will pay to sail through the strait. However, international law is clear that a toll is not legal while such fees are fine. If this deal is agreed, it will be a victory for Iran and a major loss for the US.
The New York Times explained:
As described by officials familiar with the emerging accord, vessels heading into the Persian Gulf will transit a channel controlled by Iran, and close to its coast. Ships leaving the Gulf will travel on a channel near Oman.
Iranian officials say that while there will be no tolls charged the agreement includes a "service fee" to cover the environmental impact of the shipping, security for the cargo ships and tankers, and staffing. Revenues would be divided equally between Iran and Oman, two Iranian officials said.
But a U.S. official familiar with the negotiations said on Monday that the Iranian account was "not accurate," and said that any "temporary" routes established through the strait would not involve approvals or permissions by Iran, and would involve no tolls.
It is hard to see how that US official what is or is not accurate as the US is not a party to the Iran-Oman discussions. At best, that official received a briefing from the Omanis. The NYT also said, "Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran's lead negotiator, told state television on Monday night that Iran and Oman have been negotiating for a resolution on how to manage the strait. He said the negotiations are separate from the war with the United States."
If the fees amount to the $2 million per ship that Iran had charged earlier this year, and if the traffic returns to pre-war levels, the result is $160 billion per year that Iran and Oman will share. Both parties are interested in that to be sure, but at the same time, Oman is acting in the interests of the world if it can get the strait open. Receiving $80 billion a year seems like a fair commission for salvaging the global energy and shipping markets.
Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio has said this would be unacceptable to the US. "If we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway," he said recently at a meeting of Southeast Asian officials, "charge a toll and if you don't pay them blow up your ships, we have created a very dangerous precedent, which will repeat itself in other parts of the world."
That is entirely true, and the administration of which he is such a big part made it happen. At this point, the administration has a choice of three options: leave things as they are, escalate or de-escalate. Leaving things as they are means the oil markets get tighter and tighter until the situation starts destroying demand because fewer and fewer can afford it. Escalation puts the war back on with no end in sight and risks putting US troops in Iran, which would get thousands killed. De-escalation will appear weak, cutting and running.
Iran believes that the mid-term elections have put the clock on their side. They can last three more months having lasted 47 years. Mr. Trump, on the other hand, needs a deal now, and Iran knows it. So, he is not going to get one, at least not until after voters have had their say. Mr. Trump is a weak man in a weak position, and Iran will take advantage of that. They will make sure he is weakened further at home simply by letting his chickens come home to roost.
And that is a shame because the entire planet deserves better than this. Sadly, religious bigots run Iran while fools run America. Everyone else is collateral damage.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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