Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
US Missile Supply Badly Depleted
The US-Israeli war with Iran and its proxies has depleted the American missile supply, bringing the stockpile levels to dangerous territory. The missiles in question are expensive and take a lot of time to build, meaning boosting stockpiles will cost millions if not billions and take months if not years. The risk is not that the US will be unable to strike targets in Iran. Even if all the missiles were gone, manned bombers can destroy targets (but it is riskier than doing the job with missiles). The problem is that the US may not have a sufficient deterrent to prevent China from attacking Taiwan, North Korea from attacking South Korea and Russia from attacking NATO. And that is the by-product of losing a war of choice with Iran.
Last week-end, the president called off a "massive attack" on Iran that was supposed to bring the mullahs to their senses, yet again. Instead of hitting Iran again, the US stood down while talks about the Strait of Hormuz proceeded. The chatter at the Pentagon is that the missile shortage was not a problem.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CNN that the US military "has more than enough munitions, ammo, and stockpiles to serve all of President Trump's strategic goals and beyond."
"Operation Epic Fury has exposed what happens when you mess with the United States. Even still, the President has urged our defense contractors to constantly produce more made-in-America weapons, which are the best in the world," she added.
The one rule of politics here (learned by watching "Yes, Minister") is never believe anything until it has been officially denied. And the throw-away line at the end, urging weapons makers to boost production, says it all. Operation Epstein Files (or Epic Fury) has failed and has weakened the US military.
CBS News reported, "A July report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that before the war began, the U.S. had 2,330 Patriots, and at the end of July, was down to between 759 and 827 of them. The report also estimated that before the war, the U.S. had 452 THAAD interceptors, and as of July 27, was down to between 234 and 278. Another recent CSIS report estimates it could take until at least mid-2029 to return to pre-war inventory levels for both."
Replenishment is the big worry. CNN said, "Replenishment rates are low for key missiles, analysts tell CNN -- according to current fiscal year delivery schedules, the Pentagon is receiving roughly 15 new Tomahawks and 20 new Patriot missiles per month. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated it would take three or more years to rebuild THAAD inventories to pre-Iran war levels." And that presumes no more are used.
What the wars of the 2020s have shown is military technology has changed but general staffs have not. The US has destroyed the Iranian Navy and Air Force; no one disputes that. Yet the little boats, sea and air drones have kept the Strait of Hormuz closed for months. The US Navy has been unable to force it open. The conclusion one may draw from this is that the US is spending on the wrong things.
The US helped the Afghan mujahedeen force the Soviets our Afghanistan by handing the locals Stinger shoulder-launched missiles (costing $50,000 or so). Those shot down Soviet helicopter gunships that cost millions. The economics of this doomed the Soviet effort.
America has fallen into the same trap. Shooting down a $50,000 drone with a $4 million missile is a losing proposition. Anti-drone technology can be done more cheaply; jamming radio signals, for instance, costs very little while rendering the drone attacker useless.
The saying is that generals fight the last war. That is exactly how one loses the current war. And the next war (Taiwan?) may be even worse if things do not change.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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