Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Sign Defense Pact
Late last week, three of the largest regional powers in the Middle East signed a mutual defense pact. The Mecca Joint Deterrence Agreement binds Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to come to one another's defense in the event of an attack. This agreement, they claim, is not aimed at Iran, but it is quite clear it would not have happened without an Iranian threat. The Saudis can fund the alliance, the Pakistanis bring nuclear deterrence to the MJDA and Turkiye can draw on its own substantial military as well asNATO allies as the need arises. What is missing from this arrangement is the United States, heretofore the guarantor of peace in the region. This is not just a signal that the three have lost faith in the US ability to protect them, it is a major adjustment to the power dynamics of the region.
The Associate Press stated:
In Islamabad, defense analyst Abdullah Khan described the agreement as a natural evolution and formalization of decades of strategic ties among Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, saying a changing regional security environment and the evolving nature of warfare had increased the need for closer cooperation.
Khan said the pact was "purely defensive" and not directed against any country, with collective deterrence intended to raise the cost of aggression and prevent conflict.
The trio made sure to state to the press that the alliance was not designed as an anti-Iranian one. Indeed, all three insisted that Israel remains the main threat to regional peace in their view.
Al Jazeera contacted Abdolreza Davari, an Iranian analyst and former politician, who downplayed the risks the new defense pact poses to Tehran as it seeks to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already shown it can stand up to two of the world's leading military powers -- the US and its ally Israel, he said. "What difference does it make? Will it be more difficult than the pressure the U.S. and Israel have created on Iran? Is the power of the U.S. and Israel greater or these three countries?" he said in a phone call from Tehran.
Presuming the US is still engaged in defending the region at the same level as it has done historically, Mr. Davari is correct. It makes no difference. But it signals that the US may have to scale back its commitments. At the same time, it is a signal that the three powers do not trust the US to have their backs as they once believed.
They are not the only powers in the region that are beginning to doubt that the Americans can and will protect them. Possible future members include Egypt, Qatar, Syria and the UAE. Each has its own reasons not to join at the moment, but in a few months or a couple of years, the situation may well be much different.
There is one area, in particular, that makes this arrangement a net positive for everyone. Saudi Arabia is now under the nuclear umbrella of Pakistan as is Turkiye (which is also protected by NATO nukes). This means that if Iran should decide to make itself a nuclear weapon (and after the last year and a half, there is good reason for them to do so), it may not spark a regional arms race. The worry has always been that Iran getting an atom bomb will lead to Saudi Arabia making one and then the other powers in the area have cause to get their own. The MJDA may wind up keeping the nuclear genie in the bottle a while longer.
In the end, however, this is a defeat for American diplomacy and arms. When one is strong and reliable, others line up to join in an alliance. When one is seen otherwise, others tend to look after themselves. That is exactly what is happening here.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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