Sixty days ago, the US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding that halted the worst of the violence in the Persian Gulf. It envisaged a 60-day period of negotiations aimed at establishing peace. Needless to say, that has not happened. The deal failed largely because it was the wrong way to negotiate a settlement and because the wording was so imprecise. It is safe to say that the agreement was not only unfinished but also it was never really started. Iran says that the US violated the agreement just weeks after signing it. The US maintains Iran has not acted in good faith. The White House is beginning to learn that negotiating the sale of a block of apartments is nothing compared to negotiating world peace.
In the world of New York real estate, the deals are pretty straightforward. A certain sum of money is offered for a certain property, and if the offer is accepted, the lawyers work out the details. Bankers issue mortgage funds, and deeds transfer title. It is all self-contained with very few variables (largely just price and timing). The odds on working with the same counterparty are not very high until one gets to the highest levels of business (Vornado and Tisch, not Trump).
In international negotiations, there are almost as many variables as there are countries on the planet. A system of banks and lawyers for global peace just does not exist. Throw it trade and military concerns, and the arena becomes even more complicated. Who needs to be at the table can even change.
Consider Article 1 of the MOU:
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing the MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.
The trouble is that Israel was fighitng in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Article 1 clearly states that allies are bound by the deal as well as the two principals. Yet, a nation-state in international law cannot be bound by any entity but that nation-state. In short, Israel should have been at the table when this was drawn up, but it was not. In addition, Hezbollah was not at the table either, and that is the entity with whom the Israelis are fighting.
Aritcle 6 also shows a lack of clarity:
The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
UN sanctions on Iran are not mentioned, and the US cannot lift UN sanctions unilaterally. Also unexplained is where the money is coming from, who is paying it to whom and what limitations if any exist on how it is spent.
International agreements do not start with the guys at the top shaking hands and telling the bureaucrats to work it all out the way New York real estate developers work. The bureaucrats start the talking and work on practical solutions to a few issues and let it build. When all is agreed, then the bigshots come in to finalize it, and perhaps settle one or two matters the experts could not.
One thing the MOU did accomplish was it brought clarity to what the issues between the US and Iran are. Since the US has not been able to articulate its war aims, this was a step forward. One does not expect the fighting to escalate now. Instead, the low level warfare will continue indefinitely.
The Trump administration has lost a war of choice and cannot find a diplomatic way out. Incompetence is its hallmark.