The Democratic National Committee has decided that the caucuses in Iowa and the primary election in New Hampshire will no longer be the first contests in the race for the nomination. That privilege goes to South Carolina now. The idea is to give voice to a different constituency, a less rural and less white electorate. It is a noble concept to be sure, but politically, it is ridiculous. The last time South Carolina backed a Democrat for president, the year was 1976, and Southerner Jimmy Carter was the candidate. So now, a state that has voted Republican for 50 years will start winnowing out candidates before places like California and New York (reliable Democratic states) get a say. If one must have primaries, this is not how it should happen.
The argument for Iowa and New Hampshire going first has never been a good one. Tradition is really all they have going for them. New Hampshire has 1.4 million residents. Phoenyx has 1.66 million. Iowa has a population of 3.2 million. Los Angeles has 3.8 million in the official city limits. Greater Los Angeles has over 18 million. This is not to say that places with a small population should not have a say, but rather, their say should not be greater than places with more people.
In the usual primary season, candidates start dropping out after Iowa, and more after New Hampshire. These candidates are seen as unviable by the media and by the party donors. But that is not always true. A candidate who focuses more on moving millions by public transportation rather than on ethanol subsidies would do much better in New York, Illinois and California than in Iowa.
Sentimentalists like the idea of a US senator or governor who seeks to be president standing in a barn in a place where the zip code is EIEIO begging four farmers for their votes. It is good old fashione retail politics. It lets them get their sea legs as it were before putting to sea in terms of the big campaign in the fall.
That is bovine excrement. The problem with the US system at its core is that the skills the campaign selects for are not those one must have to govern. Talking to Old MacDonald in his barn is not how the president must operate. POTUS operates on TV and social media, with some radio. To lead a nation of 340 million, one must have mass media skills rather than gladhanding guys who own John Deere tractors.
Moving the first race to South Carolina will bring more black voters into the initial decision making because the state has many more black residents than Iowa and New Hampshire combined. Once again, though, the cities of America are the losers. The biggest berg in South Carolina is Charleston, a quaint place of 160,000. It has minimal public transportation, and the problems it faces with homelessness and poverty are small because the population is small. There are more children in the public schools of Brooklyn than there are people in Charleston.
The structure of primaries also hurts both parties. One does not have to be a member of either party to vote in primaries in many states. And being a party member for primary purposes is simply stating to an election official that one is affiliated with the party. There are no membership requirements, no dues must be paid. So, one gets situations where registered Democrats are voting in the Republican primary and vice versa. Political parties are private organizations, not public entities. Yet, they have opened the process up so much that being a member loses its value in many places. The polity is not registered voters but rather is party members.
So unless the party bosses start picking candidates in back rooms (which does have its advantages too), a national primary on the same day would allow most Americans to have a say in who gets to be president in a way they do not enjoy now.
Seriously, South Carolina? If the state votes Republican in 2028, it should lose its first in the nation status because letting the state go first failed to improve election results.