Yesterday, the German lander of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and of Berlin went to the polls to elect regional parliaments. In the former, the neo-Nazi Alternativ fur Deutscheland finished in first place, but the AfD failed to secure a majority. In the latter, the Left Party (the odds and sods aligned with the former communists) finished first. The big news is that the ruling Christian Democratic Union failed to get enough votes to have even one seat in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Chancellor Merz will face pressure to make changes (and perhaps resign), but much of the discontent in Germany is not under his control.
The results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania caused Mr. Merz to call the result a “disaster” for his CDU. One would not disagree. The German system has a minimum vote threshold of 5% to be eligible to win seats in regional and national assemblies. Here, the CDU got only 4.9%, meaning no seats at all. Indeed, only four of the parties on the ballot did well enough to win seats. A majority in the local parliament of 71 seats is 36. The AfD won 32, and were the party not a pariah with whom other parties will not work, it would likely govern. But the “Firewall” approach in Germany means no other party is willing to go into coalition with the great-grandchildren of Hitler.
Instead, the Social Democrats are likely to lead the government of the lander with 29 seats (according to Deutsche Welle), supported by either the Greens or the Left, both of which won five seats. And both could support the SPD.
In Berlin, the result is not entirely final as the vote counting continues. However, the broad outline of the city government is pretty clear. Euronews has reported, “In Berlin, the latest Infratest dimap projection puts the Left at 25.7% of the vote. The CDU comes second with 18.8%, followed by the AfD at 16.3% and the Greens at 14.3%. The SPD has fallen further behind to 12.1%, while the BSW [which split with the Left some time ago) narrowly clears the threshold for parliament.” Other sources say the BSW will come up short of the 5% needed.
That means, as the seats awarded will closely track the raw vote count, that the Left, SPD and Greens will form a coalition, with the BSW possibly joining in. This will put a German of Turkish descent in the office of Mayor of Berlin. The Left was quick to say that if a Mamdani can be elected in New York, then Elif Eralp can be lead Berlin. He will get his chance.
Both results, plus the outcome of the vote a couple weeks ago in Saxony-Anhalt where the AfD came in first, puts pressure on Chancellor Merz to act in order to save his government and party. The Associated Press wrote, “But after days of speculation about Merz’s future, there were no prominent public calls Monday for his departure and no sign of a challenge. The chancellor said no one raised any ‘personnel questions’ in party leadership meetings Sunday or Monday.”
That speaks not to his strength but rather to his weakness. He is in a bad situation, and it looks like his party and government will not be able to turn this around. To be fair, there are world few leaders in a position to deal with the inflation, instability and myopic nationalism. The would-be challengers to the Chancellor have no interest in taking the job from him right now as it would be a poisoned chalice.
The good news for the government is that there are no more elections in 2026. The lander of Bremen votes next but not until the end of May. If a week is a long time in politics, eight and a half months is an eternity. What can change this situation? As the late British PM Sir Harold MacMillan said, “Events, my boy, events.” And end to the war in Ukraine or the one in Iran, the start of a war elsewhere, a financial crisis, anything of that gravity could change everything.
Whether that is for better or worse, one cannot say.