Donald Trump announced on Friday that he had made a deal with Russia allowing the latter to ship 300,000 metric tons of diesel to the US. With diesel prices at record levels, this affects every product across the global economy. Mr. Trump made a deal with Mr. Putin in an attempt to get those prices to drop ahead of the midterm elections in the US that are just 22 days away. What the arrangement will do is give Russia billions with which to fight Ukraine. What it will not do is reduce the price of diesel in any meaningful way. Those 300,000 tons (2.25 million barrels) would cover America diesel usage for 18 hours at most. Another 1.5 million will follow, a few days’ worth. It is a dumb deal.
The first problem with the deal is that Russia probably does not have that much diesel to spare. Russia can produce about 6.5 million barrels per day of all petroleum distillates, not just diesel. Because of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, that figure is down to about 3.8 million barrels per day. Russia probably consumes a little under a million barrels a day.
Forbes (a rightwing pro-market publication — proudly self-described as a “capitalist tool” — reported, “Moscow responded with a diesel export ban on July 8, and seaborne diesel and gasoil exports fell to roughly 150,000 b/d in August and 144,000 b/d in September, a collapse of about 80% from their 2025 average. This loss compounded the shock from the Iran war, which began in late February 2026.”
The deal Mr. Trump made appears to be a drop in the bucket on the supply side. However, it does provide Russia with $220 a barrel of refined diesel. That works out to be half a billion for the first 300,000 metric tons, and the deal calls for more. Russia can make a couple of billion this way, and that buys a lot of drones and North Korean soldiers.
So, the deal will not fix the diesel price problem in the US nor will it decrease Russia’s ability to make war, indeed it enhances it. But the situation is even worse than that.
The fact is that the deal is a violation of US law, not that the majority in Congress cares enough enough to hold hearings or move articles of impeachment. Be that as it may, the sale of Russian oil violates the Lindsay O. Graham Sanctioning of Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The president can only roll back the sanctions this law imposes by certifying that the war between Russia and Ukraine has come to an end. The war is still going on, and Mr. Trump has certified nothing to the contrary.
Forbes stated, “If the U.S. is willing to trade sanctions leverage for limited and temporary relief, Moscow gains revenue while Washington risks weakening the coherence of its own policy. Energy security requires investment, capacity, and a consistent strategy, not merely another deal with the Kremlin.”
This is classic Donald Trump. He creates a problem in the fuel markets by starting a war with Iran. To solve the problem created, he grasps at a straw that offers immediate if temporary relief. He ignores the long-term consequences of his actions and opts for the quick fix. The quick fix does not solve the problem permanently. Instead, it merely complicates the original problem.
He has prolonged the war in Ukraine to grab a headline that he hopes his low-information consuming supporters will think means lower prices are on the way. He has an election in 22 days, and this is a long-shot move. He has no better options because of his own incompetence.
This journal predicts that diesel prices will be higher when Americans vote on November 3 than they are today. The American Automobile Association says the average price for a gallon of diesel today is $6.3065 per gallon.