The Israeli electorate is headed to the polls today, and with about 7 hours to go, voter turnout is at a record pace. That is as it should be since this is the first general election in the country since it was attacked by Hamas on October 7, 2023. The current government of Benjamin Netanyahu is desperate to prevent any sort of inquiry into the events of that day, and the PM himself is only avoiding a criminal trial because his office makes that impossible. The opposition almost certainly will investigate him, but the war itself will continue as it has. The desire for a peace is not as strong in many hearts as the desire for vengeance.
The nature of the Israeli parliamentary system almost guarantees that a coalition will have to be negotiated. Even when Labour was running the country in the 1950s, it could not govern without the support of smaller blocs. There are 120 seats elected by a national list system. Seats are awarded in proportion to the votes received with a minimum threshold of 3.25% of the vote to win any seats at all. The governing coalition will need to put together 61 seats or more.
While the discussions go on among the parties, the Netanyahu government will remain in place as a caretaker government. If there is no government formed after 42 days, new elections could be held. Mr. Netanyahu would continue as PM throughout any second election. In short, no matter what the outcome of the election, he will stay in office for a few weeks longer at least.
There is a significant Arab minority, about 20% of the population. They will win seats, but the Jewish parties have more or less said they will not work with them. Estimates are that the left leaning Joint List and the more conservative Ra’am party will have a combined 15 seats or so. If the Jewish parties are deadlocked, the Arab parties might support someone for PM on a confidence and supply basis. That is, the Arab parties will not be formally in the government, but they will vote for the government on matters of confidence and on budgets.
The opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is not about to negotiate a two-state solution, nor is it about to withdraw the IDF from areas in which it currently operates. There will be some changes to the way the ultra-orthodox participate in the military; currently, Torah students do not serve in the military. That will probably end. Then, there are the usual matters like jobs and crime. It is hard to see a difference between the blocs on those matters.
The most egregious crimes, apart from war crimes of course, are those attacks by Jewish settlers on Christians and Muslims in the West Bank. They have killed and burned, looted and raped. The current government considers them just a bunch of good ol’ boys who were just having a little fun. If that sounds like they are Jim Crow segregationists, the similarity is there. Mr. Eisenkot might rein them in a bit.
In the end, this is election is more about the Israeli people than the Israeli politicians. The trauma of October 7 will fade over time, but for now the wounds are still painful. The government made a mess of the war, not militarily, but in public relations terms. Outside of Israel, few support the war. Whether the Israelis have moved on enough to vote for peace rather than more revenge is going to be answered by the results.
This journal considers itself a friend of the Israeli people and is appalled by the behavior of many in the Israeli government. Removing Mr. Netanyahu is a necessary but not sufficient condition for progress. The person who replaces him must change strategies because Israel cannot occupy Gaza, the West Bank and southern Lebanon indefinitely.