Israel Rejects Gaza Peace Plan
It has taken a couple of weeks, but the Israeli government has finally rejected the 15-point Gaza peace plan announced by Donald Trump’s ridiculous Board of Peace. The plan called for Hamas to disarm and for Israel to withdraw its forces from about half of Gaza. Hamas had already said it was willing to completely disarm. Of course, that was contingent on Israel agreeing, and in the end, neither side was willing to accept the timing of the other. In addition, Mr. Netanyahu is facing the Israeli electorate in a few weeks, and he cannot afford to look anything but resolute. This plan took a while to die, but its passing was never in doubt.
What this journal does doubt is the sincerity of Mr. Netanyahu to ever commit to withdrawing troops from Gaza. It is quite clear that he views the Israeli withdrawal about 20 years ago as a big mistake. He has determined that peace is not as desirable as land in large part because he thinks if the Palestinians are denied land, they will cease to be a people and cease to trouble Israel. He will make a desert of the desert and call it peace.
That is why he has opted to pursue a total war strategy against Gaza and Lebanon while doing what he can to weaken Iran, the paymasters of Hamas and Hezbollah. Lebanon is not going to get all of its land back even if there is peace between Beirut and Tel Aviv. Mr. Netanyahu will insist that Israeli security demands the occupation of the south of Lebanon.
This creates a problem for the American administration that desperately needs the war with Iran to end. It tried to separate the three areas of military action, claiming the war in Lebanon and the war with Iran were two distinct conflicts. Iran maintains otherwise, and the peace talks have failed because of the disagreement over just what fighting is supposed to stop. Iran is not going to make a deal that leaves Israel militarilty engaged with Hezbollah and Hamas. The mullahs will need to suffer much more than they have before that equation is going to change.
At the core of this conflict is the Trump administrations unwillingness to accept reality, that bombing Iran into submission will not work any better than the Blitz did in taking Britain out of WWII. Without ground troops, the war is lost. With ground troops, thousands upon thousands die and for no real purpose because the US does not have sufficient manpower to invade Iran and still meet its other security commitments.
There is one glimmer of hope, which may well be a mirage, but one sees something ahead. Israelis vote in a general election on October 27, while the US midterms are the week after. Prime Minister Netanyahu could do well enough in the election that he can make some kind of peace overture around Halloween. A sudden “breakthrough” could help tone down the violence, although it will probably be too late to save many Republican candidates from defeat. It is a slim reed to be sure.
What all of this means is the war will continue, perhaps not at the same level of violence as before the MOU, but it will not end before the American mid-terms. One can envision Iran dragging this out until January 20, 2029 when Mr. Trump will cease being president. He is determined not to be lumped in with Presidents Hoover and Carter when it comes to the economy and Iran respectively. Iran is aware of this, and the mullahs will probably work to make sure he is.
The fact is that the US and Israel had different war aims from the beginning, but there was enough overlap for both sides to start the war. Now, that overlap is insufficient to bring them both to the peace table. They want different things, and the alliance is strained as a result.
Meanwhile, just 6 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, well below the last 10-day average of 11 and pre-war levels of 130-140. The oil markets are still deluded in thinking this is going to end soon and happily. It will not.