The people of Alberta go to the polls today to vote on 10 referendum questions. The first nine deal with immigration and constitutional issues. The tenth asks if the province should remain in Canada or should the provincial government organize a referendum on independence? If the last questions passes, the province will organize another referendum. This approach is going to boost the pro-independence vote, but it should not be the majority of voters. Albertan independence is not feasible despite the oil wealth of the region. Greater powers within the federation should be on the table, but outright separation should not.
There has been an independence movement on the fringes of Canadian politics since the nation was founded. In 1995, Quebec voted on “sovereignty-association” (independence by another name). Turnout was 93.5%. The result was 2,362,648 voting against and 2,308360 voted for — about 1% difference. Since then, the separatists have been quietly working toward their ends, but a new referendum seems far off. Quebec’s situation stemmed from the Francophone/Anglophone divide in Canada.
Alberta’s complaint is different, but at its heart is the view that Ottawa has too much power. There are some cultural issues as well. The fact is the continents was settled east to west, while the borders divide north and south. Vancouver and Seattle are culturally similar. They have more in common with each other than Vancouver has with Winnipeg or Toronto, than Seattle has with Chicago or Boston.
PBS reported, “Alberta has long feuded with the federal government over oil and federal power. Liberal prime ministers Pierre Trudeau and, decades later, his son Justin became deeply unpopular in the province over energy policy.”
PBS added,
Jeff Rath, a leader of the independence movement, said federal vaccine rules preventing unvaccinated Canadians from flying were his breaking point.
“If Trudeau won’t let me leave Alberta, I’m just going to pick up my whole province and go,” Rath recalled telling a friend. “COVID was really the straw that broke the camel’s back.”
“A lot of people were radicalized by the convoy,” he said.
Mr. Rath is undoubtedly a provincial patriot, and one does not question the purity of his motivations. One merely questions his prescription for the problem. As an independent nation, Alberta is a no go. A nation of 5.1 million, it would have the same population as Norway, a successful oil-rich nation. Alberta is not Norway.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies observed
an independent Alberta would likely prove unsustainable as a landlocked nation surrounded by Canada and the United States. It would face strong challenges from First Nations who feel separation would infringe on their treaty rights; they have already approved a unanimous no-confidence vote in the Alberta government. The gravitational pull toward U.S. annexation, potentially as the 51st state or an unincorporated territory such as Puerto Rico, would be considerable, particularly given U.S. interest in Alberta’s energy resources.
Independence makes the export of oil, which has made the province the richest in the country per capita, almost impossible. The Enbridge Canadian Mainline and the Keystone Pipeline carry about 85% of Alberta’s oil to refineries. The both run through Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Canada can simply turn off the spigot. It is true that a pipeline to Montana would alleviate that problem, but it takes time to build such a beast.
Additional concerns for an independent Alberta include relations with the First Nations. Treaty obligations will complicate matters, and one cannot rule out social instability as a result.
One might add a decline in investment as well. Until the new country proves that it can manage things economically and legally, it is less attractive to invest there than in an Alberta covered by proven Canadian practices.
This journal sees this for what it is, an attempt by the right in Alberta to pushback against an effective Liberal government in Ottawa. The referendum on a referendum is a cowardly way to do this, but it will give the “yes” vote a small boost. Some people who want to put this matter to bed will vote in favor of a second vote just so they can vote “no.” That is a politically naive way to approach the issue, but one knows it will happen.
The referendum will probably go to the “Stay in Canada” crowd, but the independence crowd do not need to win to put pressure on the federal government. If they get more than 30%, one would be surprised. If they get more than that, though, this problem will fester.
Alberta is stronger in Canada with more powers devolved to the province. Canada is stronger with Alberta in it.