A month or so ago, the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a major offensive that resulted in their forces capturing the Red Sea port of Mocha and the Bab-al-Mandab strait that forms the southern opening to that sea. This was a major set back for the Sunni alliance of Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni government, Turkiye and Pakistan. As a result, the Turks and Pakistanis said they would honor the mutual defense agreement they have with Saudi Arabia. The alliance has begun a counterattack now, and it is pushing the Houthis back. While the opening of the Bab-al-Mandab is of strategic significance, what it truly important here is the mutual defense pact actually being implemented. This suggests a new power bloc is emerging in the region.
Al Jazeera reported a few minutes ago, “Yemen’s internationally recognised government has said that its forces are inflicting ‘heavy losses in personnel and equipment’ against the Houthis during fighting in southern Taiz.” Taiz is a province as well as a town, the latter is about 132 kilometers inland from Mocha. Should the province fall to the Sunni Alliance, Houthi forces in Mocha would be cut off. That would help open the Bab-al-Mandab to shipping.
The Saudi-led counterattack was begun with massive air strikes, and since the Houthis do not have a conventional air force, these attacks proved effective in preparing the battlefield for ground forces. There was, however, Houthi retaliation. The Guardian reported, “A Houthi military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said on Sunday the group launched ballistic missiles and drones at the Saudi energy company Aramco’s sites in Riyadh and in the Khurais area in the east, causing large fires.”
The Sunni forces are likely to continue gaining ground owing to the air power advantage and greater resources available. Included in that second grouping are the Turks and Pakistanis. The foreign and defense ministers of those two nations met with their Saudi counterparts in Riyadh. This committee has opted to invoke the Mecca pact of mutual defense.
“The committee agreed to activate collective deterrence measures, within the framework of the Alliance, in response to the attacks and all those responsible for them,” Khalid bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, said in a social media post.
Al Jazeera stated, “The three members of the alliance combined have nearly 1.4 million active troops, about 3,400 military aircraft, 6,000 tanks and more than 340 naval assets, according to the 2026 Global Firepower Index.”
What has been missing from the Iran War has been ground operations. The Iranians have little interest in send troops into neighboring countries when they have proxies already in place to do their bidding. The US under President Trump is very wary of using ground troops as it smacks of the forever wars that the president campaigned against. However, the Houthis are a target for the Sunni Alliance as they are right next to Saudi Arabia.
As a matter of military science, opening a strait requires control of the land on both sides. Controlling land does not happen with air strikes or naval bombardment. It comes from putting an 18-year-old on the ground armed with automatic weapons. The Sunni Alliance may well regain control of the Bab-al-Mandab, which would be a significant development for the war as more crude and refined oil products would make it to market. Iran would take a major blow from that.
The addition of Turkish and Pakistani assets to the fight suggests that the Houthis are not going to be able to hold their gains for very long. There are simply too many men and machines available to the Sunni Alliance. Moreover, the Turkish and Pakistani militaries will want to share in the “glory” of the victory. That means they need their troops involved somehow.
If this counter-offensive works, and if the Turks and Pakistanis do participate, it will be the first major move by the Sunni Alliance toward establishing itself as a power bloc in the region, capable of keeping Iran in line and capable of influencing events outside the region.
While the oil and Iranian nuclear ambitions are important, the rise of the Tripartite Sunni Alliance may be the most important development of the war — after the clear decline of American power in the region.