On Friday, the Iranians offered to open the Strait of Hormuz in 76 days’ time. Their proposal was more or less a revivification of the Memo of Understanding from June. President Trump says he has rejected the idea. However, the Iranians are saying the parties acting as go-betweens have not told them of the rejection. Officially, the offer is still on the table. At the same time, the American president said he may well start bombing Iran again after the mid-terms, which occur in 36 days. It is quite clear that Mr. Trump has no strategy, has backed himself into a corner and the only ways out all look bad for him.
The New York Times stated Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, “said that the proposed agreement would end fighting for seven days, including in Lebanon, and require the United States to release Iranian frozen assets estimated to be at least $12 billion, waive sanctions on Iranian oil and lift the naval blockade on Iran. Then, on the last day, the Strait of Hormuz would be opened.
“After the seven days, negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program would restart.”
It is not a great offer from where the Americans sit, but it is an offer that has some appeal. Getting the Strait opened to shipping is vital in the long term. While there are claims that more ships are getting through by turning off transponders and so on, the estimates are current traffic is 25% of what it was before the war. Because the Houthis, who are allied with Iran, have taken control of the Bab al-Mandab passage at the southern end of the Red Sea, getting the Hormuz open has become more important. Saudi Arabia is pretty well bottled up.
“Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before — maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world?” Mr. Trump asked in speech on Tuesday at the UN. “Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again?”
Anyone who has studied Mr. Trump over the years can see that he has little interest in making a deal wherein he has to give something up. He remains a maximalist. The problem is that the US military has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz. He will have to give up something to get that.
So, it is safe to say that there will be no deal until after the American mid-term elections. And Mr. Trump may well decide to fight rather than talk. He is convinced that he can bomb his way to success. History says otherwise, but he is no student of history nor or military science.
Iran probably has some divisions in its government between those who think negotiating can get what Iran needs and those who think that war is the only way to deal with America. This journal takes the view that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps will not accept a negotiated arrangement so long as they have their money and position as members of a state within a state. Therefore, violence is going to tick up after the elections.
One would be very happy to be proved wrong.