| Kensington Review |
19 December 2024 |
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Cogito Ergo Non Serviam |
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Latest Commentary: Fed Cuts Rates, Stock Market Drops -- Yesterday, the Federal Reserve lowered American interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25% for those who are not traders). This will boost the economic activity of the country. This is normally good for the stock market as it presages future profits. So when the market dropped yesterday, many were scratching their heads. These are economists not traders. Traders knew rates were going down and had priced that into their trades. They had also expected a few more cuts in 2025. When Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told the world there might be a couple next year at most, traders took profits because the upside is now limited. [19 December] Congress to OK 3-Month Spending Bill -- The American government is unique among developed democracies in that it can shut down due to lack of appropriations to keep it running. In more coherent and sensible systems, if a government cannot pass a budget, there has to be a new election. In the US, the inability of the legislature to pass funding bills is only an inconvenience to the country, not the elected officials whose jobs are secure for two years. Today, it seems the powers that be in Congress have decided to pass a 3-month spending bill that will keep the government open into March. Then, the whole thing starts again, and it will get harder because the GOP majority will shrink to just 1 seat when that continuing resolution's [CR] money runs out. [18 December] German Government Falls -- Chancellor Olof Scholz of Germany lost a confidence vote yesterday in the Bundestag, meaning a new coalition must be negotiated or new elections called. Given the chancellor's preferences, it looks like new elections lie ahead. Unlike in most parliamentary democracies, though, this was one the chancellor wanted to lose. Indeed, it has been dubbed a kamikaze move by some. However, Mr. Scholz believes he can win more seats at the polls and hold a stronger position in future. It is a gamble one hopes he has calculated to several decimal places. Otherwise, a far-right-influenced government in Germany is a distinct possibility. [17 December] Wray Leaving FBI -- Chrstopher Wray is the Director of the FBI, appointed by Donald Trump in 2017. He has a 10-year term of office, meaning the job is his until 2027. He can be fired for cause, of course, but thus far, he has no scandal attached to him that would require his departure. Nevertheless, he is resigning effective at the end of the Biden administration. Mr. Trump has said for months he would get rid of the director, and his brief pressure campaign work. Now, he will be able to appoint Kash Patel, a demented conspiracy buff with minimal administrative experience. Should Mr. Wray have stayed on? [12 December] South Korea in Political Chaos Still -- The sudden collapse of the government in Syria knocked the South Korean martial law story off the front pages. Such things happen regularly, and when they do, it is often useful to return to the initial story to update one's understanding of developments. In the specific case of South Korea, the impeachment of the president failed once but will be attempted again. The former defense minister has tried to kill himself. Earlier today, police raided the office of the president, overcoming resistance from security guards. There were also raids of the offices of three different police agencies. In short, the brief crisis appears to have legs and will persist for some time.[11 December] © Copyright 2024 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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21 Years Online Volume XXII, Number 180
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